Many a pundit are writing off California for the McCain column. I, for one, have not. Why is that? Why are the DDBMSOWN trying to write California once again a big blue for the Democrats?
My thought is that if the DDBMSOWN keep saying that there is no chance in California for the McCain ticket, they will not bother.
But, a little problem occurred with all of that.
Her name is SARAH!
Alaska governor, Sarah Palin, has rejuvenated Republicans all across the United States.
Even the reliably liberal San Francisco Chronicle had an article that was about a resurgence of Republican fortunes. And that is in usually moribund Northern California, also known as No Cal.
There were two interesting nuggets that came out of the article.
Firstly, that the state Republican party has 50 GOTV offices is California. And that on any given weekend, they are making a combined 125,000 contact calls. In the Bush-Kerry saga of 2004, the Republicans gave up very early on California and there was no presence to speak of here in the Not-So-Golden State.
Then this struck me. That there are some private polling that has shown an only five-point difference between the Democrat, Sen. Messiah Barack and Sen. "F--- You" McCain. I can attest to that for when I went to my local GOP office, I was told the same thing.
A bad note is the citing of the heavily Democrat Field Poll which, of course, shows Sen. Messiah Barack with a 52% to 36% lead over Sen. "F--- You" McCain.
And here is my observation here in Pasadena, California.
I see quite a lot of Obama signs in front of houses. I have only seen one Obama/Biden sign in the many I saw this weekend. But there are an unusually large amount of McCain signs and many more McCain/Palin signs. No question, Sen. Messiah Barack has the advantage in lawn signs. But, Sen. "F--- You" McCain has a stronger presence here than did Bush/Cheney in 2004.
Which leads me to believe that the real polling in California is somewhere between the five percent in private polling and 16% spread in the Field Poll. I think that it may be a little as an eight point Obama advantage but no more than 11%.
So, why is there any interest in the Republican ticket in reliably Democrat California?
Phil Lehman has the answer:
Now the office is welcoming first-timer campaigners like Phil Lehman, a 63-year-old Foster City resident.
His reason for volunteering: "Sarah."
"There's a realness to her, a believability," Lehman said. "I think she's going to eat Joe Biden's lunch at the (vice presidential) debate."
I agree. Sarah Palin is a factor in California and the Republicans may be taking this state a lot more seriously than Team Bush did in both elections.